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NEW POLL: PETER OBI BEATS ATIKU, TINUBU, RUNOFF LIKELY IN 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

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Another new face-to-face nationwide poll on the 2023 general elections has put the Labour Party Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, ahead with 37% of the survey respondents.

Obi is followed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who secured 27% of the survey responses, while the All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, secured 24% with New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate securing at 6% of survey respondents.

This disclosure is contained in a press statement by Nextier, an African-focused consulting firm, where it presented the second presidential poll conducted, on  Friday, January  27,  2023, 4 weeks before the scheduled presidential elections.

The Nextier team used a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of 2% at a 95% confidence interval.

The survey sample represented the age and gender demographics in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory. None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25% in two-thirds of the states.

Runoff election likely despite Labour party lead.

The survey results show that Labour Party can achieve 25% of the votes in 23 states, meaning that the presidential election could head to a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.

Most registered voters (72%) have decided on their preferred party. This result is consistent across rural and urban voters. Similarly, the survey data demonstrates that respondents are certain in their choices.

The survey showed that 83% of the respondents indicated that nothing would make them change their preferred party before the election. It is important to note that the survey questionnaire showed the party logos and names instead of the candidates’ names or images.

Significantly higher voter turnout expected in 2023 presidential election

Nextier in its report from the survey noted that voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election could be significantly higher than in 2019. For instance, 77% of respondents indicated that they ‘will vote in this election, while 63% stated that they “will definitely vote.”

This level of commitment was consistent across all age and gender demographics in rural and urban communities. Despite the voter commitment, turnout could be depressed by a combination of factors, which include insecurity, concerns about the freedom and fairness of the election, and concerns about the impartiality of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC).

Only 52% of the respondents trust that the elections will be free and fair.  Only 47% of respondents trust that INEC will not manipulate the results.

2023 election to be the most keenly contested in decades

The founding partner of Nextier, Patrick O. Okigbo stated that the 2023 presidential election is shaping to be one of the most keenly contested races in recent decades.

He said, ‘’It is exciting to see Nigerians take their civic responsibilities seriously.’

He confirmed that, in addition to the two national polls, Nextier would continue to provide data analysis and insights on Nigeria’s selections and other development issues.

In summary, although the Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections will likely go into a second-round runoff with Peter Obi and one of either Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.

For the record

  • This is the second poll that Nextier is conducted in recent times for the 2023 presidential elections.
  • Recall that in November 2022, Nextier had in an opinion poll it conducted, tipped Peter Obi to be the winner of the 2023 election if it was held then.
  • Conducted in rural communities, the survey interviewed 2,000 Nigerian registered voters in 12 states across the six geopolitical zones. The Nextier survey team said they excluded the home states of the leading presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
  • The poll suggests a 3-horse presidential race between Mr. Obi, Bola Tinubu of the APC, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Though with a strong support base in Nigeria’s north-west, particularly his Kano home state, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP is not considered a top contender, according to the survey.
  • The poll results show that Mr. Obi leads in rural communities at 40.37%. Mr. Abubakar is at a distant second with 26.7%, closely followed by Tinubu at 20.47%.

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APC Hails Uzodimma, Ododo On Election Victory, Commends INEC

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The All Progressives Congress has congratulated its governorship candidates in Imo and Kogi states, Hope Uzodimma and Usman Ododo, respectively, on their victory at last Saturday’s election.

The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, revealed this in a statement signed on Monday, November 13.

The statement read, “The All Progressives Congress congratulates His Excellency, Hope Uzodimma, on his re-election as Executive Governor of Imo State, and Usman Ododo on his emergence as Governor of Kogi State.

“The landslide victories of both Governor Uzodinma and Ododo at the just-concluded gubernatorial polls attest to the exceptional performance of the APC-led administrations in both states and resonated loudly with voters.

“We are confident that Governor Uzodimma will consolidate and extend the impressive accomplishments of his first term in Imo State, while Usman Ododo, on his part, will build on the solid record of the outgoing APC-administration in Kogi State.

“We commend the Independent National Electoral Commission and security agencies for professionally discharging their constitutional duties during the election in both states.

“We salute the Imo and Kogi electorate for their invaluable and massive support of our great party.”

Punch

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Breaking News! IMO DECIDES: Hope Uzodinma Steps Down For Anyanwu, Looses Presidential Support

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Gov. Hope Uzodinma has stepped down for SamDaddy Anyanwu as he could not garner support from Mr. President, Bola President Tinubu.

Ahead of the November 11th governorship election, the All progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Gov. Hope Uzodinma, has stepped down for Sen. Samuel Nnaemeka Anyanwu, also known as SAMDADDY, as he could not garner a nod and/or any iota of support from Mr. President, Bola Tinubu.

recall that during the presidential primary election of All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2022, Gov. Hope Uzodinma personally purchased the #100m nomination form for Ahmed Lawan, the former Senate President, who got the support of the National Chairman of All progressives Congress (APC), Sen. Abdullahi Adamu.

Our investigation revealed that the embattled Gov. Hope Uzodinma, for over two months now, has been restless trying ferret and/or fetch the attention of Mr. President to help him clutch at his re-election ambition by directing the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the security agents to lend him cooperations to rig off the upcoming governorship election but Mr. President insisted while maintaining that he would not interfere in the said Imo election.

Standing on his firm resolve, Mr. President promised that there would be fair play, free and/or unhindered participations in the said upcoming polls in Imo State to all the parties and their candidates without any interference and/or undue favouritism and/or supportations of any kind of from the security agents: military, police, etc as well as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

In fact, it’s gathered, from inside Aso Rock, that Mr. President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, would not want Gov. Hope Uzodinma to be re-elected to quell and/or douse the burning fires of insecurity in the State.

Political analysts as well as some political high-fliers both in Imo State and in Nigeria, including elsewhere, have interpreted Mr. President’s position as a payback in Gov. Hope Uzodinma’s coin for the socio-political betrayal or sabotage from Gov. Hope Uzodinma against Mr. President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu,  during the days in “wilderness” at All Progressives Congress’ (APC’) primary in 2022.

On Thursday, the 9th day of November, 2023, after all efforts made by Gov. Hope Uzodinma to obtain Mr. President’s support dashed away or proved abortive, unfortunately, the said embattled Imo State governor, Gov. Hope Uzodinma, has informed his loyalists and his few myopic supporters in the State that his guber aspiration and/or project was unsure and visibly in confusing jeopardy as his sordid plans to use the military, police and Ebube Agu security to rig the said election has been shattered as the Presidency has directed the disbandment of Ebube Agu secret militia and redeployment of Imo State Commissioner of Police, Mohammed Barde, whom Gov. Hope Uzodinma had already but heavily sorted with millions of Naira and Dollars.

Inside information indicates that Gov. Hope Uzodinma has been directed by the Presidency to work together with the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP’s)  Candidate, Sen Samuel Nnaemeka Anyanwu, (SAMDADDY), to save himself from pepertual socio-political condemnation and/or being disgraced by probe.

In compliance with the above, Gov. Hope Uzodinma has directed his loyalists and/or supporters to mobilize and support the candidature of Sen. Samuel Nnaemeka Anyanwu (SamDaddy) of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and vote for him come Saturday, the 11th November, 2023 governorship election in Imo State.

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Afenifere: Fasoranti Differs With Adebanjo On S-Court Verdict

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FORMER Leader of the pan-Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere, Pa Reuben Fasoranti, yesterday, disagreed with the leader of the group, Pa Ayo Adebanjo, over the Supreme Court verdict that affirmed President Bola Tinubu’s victory during the February 25, 2023 general election.

Pa Adebanjo and other Afenifere leaders had met in Isanya Ogbo area of Ijebu in Ogun State, and faulted the Supreme Court verdict, which affirmed the victory of President Tinubu.

They said that the judgement has rendered the billions of naira expended on electoral reform, a waste.

But, in a counter-reaction, Pa Fasoranti, in a statement, disowned Adebanjo’s position on the Supreme Court judgement.

Fasoranti said: “The attention of Chief Reuben Fasoranti and other leaders has been drawn to a communique purportedly released in the name of Afenifere by the General Secretary, Chief Sola Ebiseni, where Afenifere is said to fault the Supreme Court judgement upholding Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu’s election as the President of Nigeria.

“This is far from the truth about Afenifere’s leadership position on the matter.

“Let it be on record that Chief Fasoranti and other Afenifere leaders are not privy to such ignominious press release, did not authorise it and do not subscribe to the seditious act such may portend.

“It is merely an unfortunate misadventure of some Labour Party elements within the Afenifere fold who would rather drag the body’s reputation in the mud to achieve whatever sinister and seditious end they might have concocted.

“The world will recall that Chief Fasoranti had congratulated the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces on his election into office, and also expressed solidarity over his victory at the apex court.

“It is then clearly underhanded and mischievous to have such preposterous attack on the judiciary by intemperate elements within the fold, fanning the embers of national discords with political motives, using the name of Afenifere.

“We are unequivocal in reiterating that Pa Ayo Adebanjo is the Acting Leader, who, in the natural and traditional order of Afenifere, is expected to defer to his leader who appointed him, Chief Fasoranti, without reservations.

“To do otherwise is to tread such ignoble path in national discourse as this unfortunate release reveals.

“The meeting recently held in Ogbo Ijebu, at no point raised or decided on the attack on the judiciary as the statements of the General Secretary seemed to portray.

“The leaders of Afenifere would like to challenge Chief Ebiseni to offer the world, the true record of deliberations at the said meeting to confirm its concurrence with the communique he so released to the world.

“The ethos and structure of Afenifere vest the leadership authority in the Leader as the Olori Ebi; until such time that he joins his forebears, notwithstanding whoever he has chosen to act on his behalf.

Vanguard

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