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NIGERIA’S GROWTH RECOVERY STILL FRAGILE AS OIL PRODUCTION REMAINS SUBDUED – WORLD BANK

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*22 African countries at high risk of external debt distress 

*Prescribes debt reduction, domestic revenue mobilization strategies  

The World Bank yesterday declared that Nigeria’s 2.8 per cent projected growth recovery for 2023 was still fragile as oil production remains subdued, despite rallying to over 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) recently.
In the latest ‘Africa’s Pulse,’ its April 2023 economic update for Sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank also revealed that 22 countries in the region were at high risk of external debt distress or already in debt distress as of December 2022.


The World Bank report observed that growth across Sub-Saharan Africa remains sluggish, dragged down by uncertainty in the global economy, the underperformance of the continent’s largest economies, high inflation, and a sharp deceleration of investment growth.


It stated that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa was set to slow from 3.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.1 per cent in 2023.
Commenting on the new report which was released yesterday, the World Bank Chief Economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, said: “Economic activity in South Africa is set to weaken further in 2023 (0.5% annual growth) as the energy crisis deepens, while the growth recovery in Nigeria for 2023 (2.8%) is still fragile as oil production remains subdued.


“The real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the Western and Central Africa sub-region is estimated to decline to 3.4 per cent in 2023 from 3.7 per cent in 2022, while that of Eastern and Southern Africa declines to three per cent in 2023 from 3.5 per cent in 2022.
“Weak growth combined with debt vulnerabilities and dismal investment growth risks a lost decade in poverty reduction.”  
Dabalen urged policy makers to redouble efforts to curb inflation, boost domestic resource mobilisation, and enact pro-growth reforms, while continuing to help the poorest households cope with the rising costs of living.


Emphasising that debt distress risks remain high with 22 countries in the region at high risk of external debt distress or in debt distress as of December 2022, it affirmed that unfavorable global financial conditions had increased borrowing costs and debt service costs in Africa, diverting money from badly needed development investments and threatening macro-fiscal stability.  
Stubbornly high inflation and low investment growth continue to constrain African economies, it stressed, adding that
While headline inflation appears to have peaked in the past year, inflation is set to remain high at 7.5 per cent for 2023, and above central bank target bands for most countries.


The report also revealed that investment growth in Sub-Saharan Africa fell from 6.8 per cent in 2010-13 to 1.6 per cent in 2021, with a sharper slowdown in Eastern and Southern Africa than in Western and Central Africa.
Despite these challenges, many countries in the region are showing resilience amidst multiple crises, the report pointed out.

These include Kenya, Cote d’Ivoire, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) which grew at 5.2 per cent, 6.7 per cent, and 8.6 per cent respectively in 2022.
In the DRC, the mining sector was the main driver of growth due to an expansion in capacity and recovery in global demand. Harnessing natural resource wealth provides an opportunity to improve fiscal and debt sustainability of African countries, but the report cautioned that this can only happen if countries get policies right and learn the lessons from the past boom and bust cycles.  


World Bank Senior Economist, James Cust said: “Rapid global decarbonisation will bring significant economic opportunities to Africa.
“Metals and minerals will be needed in larger quantities for low carbon technologies like batteries—and with the right policies—could boost fiscal revenues, increase opportunities for regional value chains that create jobs, and accelerate economic transformation.”
The report further stated that in a time of energy transition and rising demand for metals and minerals, resource-rich governments have an opportunity to better leverage natural resources to finance their public programs, diversify their economy, and expand energy access.


Countries could potentially more than double the average revenues that they currently collect from natural resources, it added.
“Tapping these fiscal resources in the form of royalties and taxes while continuing to attract private sector investment requires the right kinds of policies, reforms, and good governance.
“Maximising government revenues derived from natural resources would offer a double dividend for people and planet by increasing fiscal space and removing implicit production subsidies,” the report stressed.  

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NNPC Welcomes FG’s Decision To Remove Fuel Subsidy

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Mele-Kyari-NNPC-GMD

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited has welcomed the decision of the President Ahmed Bola Tinubu-controlled Federal Government to remove fuel subsidy.

In a press conference in Abuja on Monday, Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of the corporation charged with harnessing Nigeria’s oil and gas reserves, said the corporation was pleased with the decision of President Tinubu to remove the fuel subsidy.

“We welcome the decision of Mr. President to announce that the subsidy on PMS is over, and this has really been a major challenge for NNPC’s continued operations. We have been funding subsidy from the cash flow of the NNPC since the government is unable to defer the cost of subsidy that is due to the corporation,” Kyari said.

Burdened by the financial cost of importing fuel, Kyari said that the removal of this subsidy will free up funds to make it more commercially viable and do great work for the country.

“And we believe that this will be able to free resources for the NNPC to continue to do the great works that this company will do for our country, and it will allow us to function as a very commercial entity, and we welcome this development,” he said.

The Group Chief Executive Officer has assured Nigerians of the supply of petroleum products, informing Nigerians of an abundance of the products, particularly “Petroleum Motor Spirit product in our country, and there is no reason to panic.”

He urged Nigerians not to engage in panic buying as there would be no potential changes in the prices of petroleum products.

He promised that normalcy in the supply chain would be restored as soon as possible.

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Refinery: We’ll Ask Dangote To Sell Forex At Good Rate — Emefiele

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…Says CBN, govt helped him build a refinery
…Raises interest rate to 18.5 %lAs NACCIMA, IPMAN, and others react

With the Dangote Refinery set to deliver its first products in July, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Mr Godwin Emefiele, said yesterday that the refinery would be persuaded to sell foreign exchange earnings to banks at a good rate.

Speaking at the end of the 291st Monetary Policy Committee, MPC, meeting in Abuja, Emefiele said his team would engage the promoter of the refinery, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, to ensure that Nigerians benefitted from the venture, adding that the CBN, the Federal Government and, indeed, the country helped him set up the refinery.

The CBN boss expressed optimism that the refinery would ease the foreign exchange scarcity in the country, noting that with local refining, about 20 per cent cost of the total cost of importing petroleum products could be saved, thereby reducing prices in the long run. He, however, said it was time to exit the fuel subsidy regime.

His words: “By the time the Dangote Refinery comes on stream, the price at which it (fuel) will be dispensed will be lower than what it is when we spend dollars to import because there will be no freight cost, no storage and all other logistics expenses.
“So we will be lucky to be having about 20 per cent savings from refining locally, rather than importing.

“But the important thing is that we have reached a point, whether we like it or not when we must exit subsidy.
“Dangote Refinery coming at this time gives us the confidence that even if we exit subsidy, the products will be available. And eventually, the interplay of market forces will also moderate the prices to a level that will help the country.

“So we are expecting that, no doubt, by the time he produces for domestic consumption, the excess will be exported by the numbers that he talked about, which we agree with.

‘’We should be able to save, conservatively, close to about $5 billion to $10 billion in foreign exchange that will come into the country.

“Whether it comes to our reserves or not is not the point, it is the fact that the dollar is available and it will be sold in the domestic market so that customers of banks who need to import do not necessarily resort to CBN for dollars.
“They can go to their banks and Dangote will sell dollars to their banks and we are going to ensure that it is done at a good market rate.

“What I would have loved to say on Monday (at the Dangote Refinery Commissioning) which I didn’t say was that the CBN, the government and the country have helped Dangote to set up that refinery.

“He is a Nigerian; Nigerians must benefit from that venture and we are going to engage him and talk to him and I am sure that being the richest man in Africa, he is going to throw a few crumbs so that the price will be lowered.”

N8trn interventions in 5yrs

Meanwhile, Emefiele revealed that the CBN had given out about N8 trillion in interventions to the private sector in the last five years.

He said: “In the last four to five years, we have done about N8 trillion in interventions to the private sector of the economy. The loans have been granted for 10 years, with a two-year moratorium and at single digit”.

The CBN boss disclosed, however, that going forward, the apex bank would reduce its quasi-fiscal activities.

MPR jerked up to 18.5%

At yesterday’s meeting, the MPC raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 18.5 per cent from 18 per cent.
Emefiele said the strategy, which started in May last year, had been working as it had moderated the rate of inflation in the economy.

He admitted that the interest rate hike was constraining credit to the real sectors of the economy but that it remained the best option in tackling inflation.

He stated: “The current trend in price development would continue to be monitored by the bank with greater collaboration with fiscal authority to address the drivers of inflation.”

Meanwhile, the committee voted to keep the asymmetric corridor at +100 and -700 basis points around the MPR.

It also retained the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 32.5 per cent and equally left the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.

We look forward to cost reduction — IPMAN

Reacting to the CBN’s declaration that Dangote would sell Dollars to banks at good rate, the National President of the Independent Petroleum Association of Nigeria, IPMAN, Elder Chinedu Okoronkwo, could not be reached for comments, yesterday.

But National Operations Controller, IPMAN, Mike Osatuyi, said: “Oil marketers are very happy about the Dangote Refinery. We were tied to the global market for several decades. Now, everyone will be free to patronise the refinery.

‘’We look forward to a significant cost reduction, apparently because freight and shipping costs will not apply anymore.
“With the coming onstream of the plant, the Federal Government will be encouraged to end fuel subsidy. This might be affordable to Nigerians, unlike what it could have been in the past.”

Dangote Refinery comes with multiplier effects — OGSPAN

Similarly, the National President, Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria, OGSPAN, Mazi Colman Obasi, said: “On a serious note, Alhaji Aliko Dangote should be commended for making this gigantic investment.

“Every patriotic Nigerian and African should be proud of this refinery. It is very huge and it comes with a lot of multiplier effects for Nigeria.

“I completely agree with the CBN governor that it will culminate in the generation of additional foreign exchange into Nigeria as well as assist the nation to conserve foreign exchange currently expended on massive importation of petroleum products.

“As a major crude oil producer, Nigeria should not have been involved in the importation of petroleum products. ‘’The nation was compelled by circumstances to go into importation. I am happy that this big refinery will enable us reduce or completely stop dependence on the global market.”

CBN should merge forex rates — NACCIMA

Also commenting, Sola Obadimu, Director General, Nigerian Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture, NACCIMA, while acknowledging the capacity of Dangote Refinery to generate forex, said CBN should rather focus on merging forex rates.

He said: “Honestly, my take is that CBN should merge these forex rates to avoid whatever might be called ‘good’ or ‘bad’ rates. And that’s the responsibility of CBN – to determine the true value of the Naira. Various exchange rates are basic ingredients for grandiose corruption as we know it.

“Yes, this is a very commendable project that has the capacity to generate forex whenever it starts to export and the proceeds would be convertible to Naira.

“At present, exporters through official channels are complaining that conversion for forex generated from exports is only available to them at official rates which may be unfair, given the fact that they never get enough forex at official rates when they need it either for imported inputs or machinery/parts.

“That’s the danger of dual or multiple exchange rates, particularly when the gaps are too wide as we have it now. But then, the government now has some stakes in the project.

‘’So they may reach some agreements on that level. But it might be preferred to have policies that encourage export activities by all as much as possible.”

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Cbn Raises Interest Rate To 18.5%; Highest In 22 Years

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Emefiele

The Central Bank of Nigeria at its just concluded Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting raised its benchmark interest rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 18.5 per cent, the country’s highest in 22 years.

The CBN governor, Godwin Emefiele, made this known during the post-MPC press conference on Wednesday.

In April 2023, headline inflation increased to 22.22 per cent from 22.04 per cent in the previous month, marking its highest level since September 2005.

This is the third time the Mr Emefiele led apex bank will be raising it’s interest rate in 2023.

Nigeria has struggled with a high rate of inflation as well as a declining exchange rate at both the parallel and official markets.

In April 2022, headline inflation reached its highest level in more than 17 years, eroding the purchasing power of the populace.

However, the apex bank has continued to increase the interest rate to combat the continued rising inflation.

People Gazette

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